Mortgage Market Update: Is a Fed Rate Cut Coming in September?

If you've been waiting for a more favorable time to buy a home or refinance your mortgage, this may be your moment.

This past week delivered a wave of economic data that’s shifting the outlook for interest rates — and fast. Here's what you need to know:

Fed Holds Rates — But the Tone Has Changed

At Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, rates were held steady — no surprise there. But what was surprising? Two Fed governors dissented and voted against holding steady, marking the first time that’s happened since 1993.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell also hinted that the central bank is prepared to cut rates — they’ve simply been waiting on clearer signs that the job market is cooling.

That Sign Has Now Arrived

The labor data released Friday confirmed what many economists suspected: the job market is slowing rapidly. Here’s the breakdown:

  • Only 73,000 jobs were added in July, a sharp miss from expectations.

  • June’s numbers were revised down dramatically — from 206,000 to just 14,000 jobs.

  • Unemployment rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1%, marking a steady climb from earlier this year.

This is the kind of softening the Fed has openly said would be necessary to justify lowering rates.

Inflation Is No Longer the Obstacle

On Thursday, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index — came in flat, indicating inflation is stabilizing and no longer putting upward pressure on interest rates.

So What Does This Mean for You?

All signs now point to a strong possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September — a move that would likely bring mortgage rates down even further.

If you’ve been:

  • Waiting for better conditions to buy your first home

  • Looking to refinance but holding out for a lower rate

  • Considering a move but unsure about timing...

Now is the time to revisit your options.

We're keeping a close eye on the market and will continue to provide updates as things unfold. Rates don’t move in a straight line, so getting ahead of a Fed move could help you lock in better pricing before the market adjusts.